Wolfson JRF Co-Authors AI Study Predicting Global Societal Instability

A new study co-authored by Dr Fanqi Zeng, Junior Research Fellow at Wolfson College, uses AI modelling to predict patterns of societal instability across different countries, shedding light on the economic and social pressures that may shape the future.

Published in Futures, the study examines data from the United States, Sweden, India, and China, focusing on demographics, government expenditures, and revenues. By analysing World Bank data on the working-age population (ages 15-64) from 1960 to projected figures in 2050, the research highlights a significant decline in this group across all four nations. The most dramatic shift is expected in China, where the working-age population is predicted to shrink by 15%—posing a major challenge for economic stability.

As populations age, governments typically increase spending on pensions and healthcare, but with fewer workers paying taxes, state revenues decline. This imbalance could lead to persistent budget deficits, increased national debt, and rising interest rates. The study suggests that in the most likely scenario, these pressures could trigger a spending crisis in China and fuel social tensions in the US, Sweden, and India.

This research challenges previous theories that attribute political crises to elite overproduction—the idea that too many people competing for elite positions leads to societal fractures. Instead, it argues that demographic and economic trends could be a more significant driver of instability in the decades ahead.

Reflecting on the findings, Dr Zeng said:

“AI tools show great potential for enhancing social science forecasting, but many ‘black-box’ models lack transparency in their decision-making. To improve accuracy, we need more transparent and reproducible models, and we must refine prompts, compare multiple models, and integrate iterative learning to enhance the precision and utility of analyses.”

This study is among the first to extend predictions of societal instability beyond wealthy Western nations, providing a global perspective on the challenges governments may face in balancing social spending with economic sustainability.